Ron Ben Yishai writes about the possibility that the Syrian uprising will result in the country’s breaking up in ethnic, autonomic, hostile regions that are barely connected. One of the signs of disintegration is that some chiefs of important Alawite tribes, once loyal to Bashar Al Assad, have started to declare that they are no longer supporting the president.
Another important development is the fact that more and more soldiers are pulled away from border areas, for instance the Golan Heights, to fight against the rebels in the urban areas of Homs, Idlib and Daraa areas. Several hundreds of foreign forces, like Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, have crossed the borders to help the Syrian regime fight the rebels. Eventually, the fear exists that those factions will be able to lay their hands on advanced surface-to-air missile batteries and other heavy weaponry.